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Nintendo Okie Podcast – Episode 153
So, the longer I spend typing this the less time I have to watch InuYasha. Podcast summary: Tony, me, talk video games, other stuff, jokes, Fire Emblem, Yakuza 4, news.
episode-153
Starring – Tony, Shelby
Run time – 1:34:06
Podcast link dump: podcast@nintendo-okie.com, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, forum.
Michael Pachter Speaks
Straight from the man himself. Sony and Microsoft think Nintendo’s glory days are behind them and that even with a head start, the Wii U will fall behind in the next console generation. Whether you agree with him or not, when he speaks people seem to listen.
“Yes, they’ll give Nintendo a head start, and no, neither of them is concerned about the impact of a head start. They won’t say it, but both manufacturers think Nintendo’s glory days are behind it. I don’t think the Wii U’s head start will make much difference at all, since I don’t expect it to be any more powerful than current generation consoles, but maybe Nintendo will surprise me.”
Nintendo Okie Podcast – Episode 106
Questions are asked on this episode of the Okie Cast. What are the top five games Wii players want? Who is still making SNES games? Why haven’t Micah and I moved to Japan yet? Will the Wii U controller be sentient? Is Michael Pachter mad the Wii HD never happened? These are the tough issues we talk through in episode 106. We also talk about a few games; Zuma’s Revenge, Dillon’s Rolling Western, Zombie Parkour Runner and Namco Museum Virtual Arcade.
episode-106
Starring – Tony, Micah, Shannon, Shelby
Run time – 1:44:08
If you want to talk to the crew and share your thoughts on the world around us, email us at podcast@nintendo-okie.com. You can also talk to us on the forums or on Facebook if that’s more your thing. We have a Twitter account too if you would rather have things bite-sized. Our YouTube channel isn’t really bite-sized. Our videos are usually 15 minutes long.
Did Michael Pachter Really Just Insult Everyone?
We’ve talked about Michael Pachter a lot in the past. He’s really the biggest name in the industry when it comes to talking financials. He’s a smart man and he does make a lot of valid points when he presents his arguments. He recently said that he thinks Nintendo is in disarray because of the way they’re handling the Wii U. I think it’s too early to really tell what’s going to happen with the Wii U, but we’ll see. His latest comments really up the ante.
Nintendo is in disarray because they waited too long to launch the Wii U. I know that this sounds like (and is) sour grapes because they didn’t launch the Wii HD in 2009 or 2010 as I “predicted”. They should have, and because they didn’t, the decline in Wii and DS hardware and software sales drove them into generating LOSSES. For those of you who aren’t financial analysts, losses mean that the company is worth less than it was before. Nintendo stock has dropped by over 80% in the last few years, and the market has appreciated over the same period. I’m paid to advise investors, and none have made a profit owning Nintendo stock. I don’t think that many will make a profit over the next few years, because I don’t think Nintendo’s strategy will return them to profitability.
If the context above infuriates you, go back to school and pay attention, then read it again
Not only does he say that Nintendo is in danger of not returning to profitability, despite the exact opposite being said by the company itself, he went on to tell everyone reading his comments that they’re not smart enough to understand what they’re reading. While that many be true, not many analysts will come right out and say it. That’s generally bad for business.
How often does he make these types of comments about Microsoft or Sony? It really seems like he’s really riding this anti-Nintendo train because they always seem to do the opposite of what he says. I’ve ridden the Nintendo is in trouble train in the past. Things haven’t always been good, despite them riding high after the launch of the Wii. The last year to eighteen months have been pretty dismal for Wii owners, but 2012 looks good and going into the Wii U there are some things to be excited about.
Has Michael Pachter Lost His Mind?
I’ve said in the past that people weren’t as excited about the Wii U up to this point because no one really knows what the system is capable of, or what types of games we’re going to play on it. We’ve discussed the issue many times on the podcast over the last few weeks with optimism and caution. Nintendo recently revealed some information about the Wii U and information is slowly trickling out. I also believe that the system isn’t going to launch until sometime last this summer or early in the fall. There’s still plenty of time for Nintendo to get people on board with their next home console. One man isn’t so conviced, however, and his name is Michael Pachter.
“I think Nintendo is in disarray. I think they’ve completely blown the Wii U by not telling people what the price is going to be. It’s going to launch at $249 because it has to. I think they’re dead anyway because Xbox with Kinect will be priced below that by the time they launch. Wii was a bubble and that the Wii bubble has burst. Nintendo Wii fans are now playing Farmville. The Wii was a bubble. The Wii bubble has burst.”
So, Nintendo has screwed up at this point by not telling us how much the price is going to be for the Wii U? I don’t think that’s really going to be the ultimate deciding factor in the Wii U’s fate. It wasn’t until E3 of 2006 that we knew how much the Wii was going to be and that system launched later that year in November. So, by using that metric alone Nintendo doesn’t need to announce the price of the system until June of this year, which is when I’m pretty darn sure they’re going to announce that information.
I think $249 is a little optimistic for the price of the system, but it could happen. Nintendo launched the 3DS at $249 because they thought people would pay that. Ultimately, they didn’t, but it wasn’t just the price that was a deciding factor. The 3DS got a price drop eight months later and the system has been on an upward swing ever since. I don’t believe Nintendo will make the same mistake with the Wii U and the price will be lower than it might have been if the 3DS had been successful at its launch.
I think he is right in that the Wii bubble has burst, but it’s been like that for a while. 2012 is going to see a very solid lineup of games for the system. We’ve got Rhythm Heaven Fever right now with Xenoblade Chronicles coming in April, The Last Story soon after that and Mario Party 9 on the horizon. I think all of those could be successful for Nintendo in some way or another so the Wii still has life left in it, but the “bubble” of the Wii burst a long time ago.
Don’t count out the Wii U just yet. People did that with the Wii. They did it with the 3DS and Nintendo has shown they know what they’re doing and people still continue to buy their products in pretty large numbers.
Nintendo Wants Wii U As A Media Hub, Pachter Not Convinced
There are reports surfacing today that Nintendo is working with a number of different companies to make the Wii U more of a media hub similar to the Xbox 360. We’re talking sports networks, cable TV, music services and more. Nintendo branched out a little bit with the Wii by getting Netflix and Hulu + to allow you to watch TV and movies. We’re seeing more video content appearing on the 3DS with Nintendo Video and the other previously mentioned services.
It’s an ambitious move by the company, who up until this point has been solely focused on providing a quality video game device. More and more people are clinging to the idea that these devices need to offer more and it will be interesting to see if Nintendo can pull this off by jumping whole hog into the mix. One man, however isn’t convinced. Michael Pachter doesn’t think that Nintendo can pull something like that off, and to go one step further he doesn’t think they’ll get the games to go with the system in the next generation. Adweek has a quote from him talking about this situation.
“I don’t know if they have the chops to pull it off. I don’t think game publishers are going to support it.”
I think the Wii U is going to be more successful than some people are giving it credit for. Nintendo comments over and over how they’ve learned from their mistakes in the past. They tried to let third parties take the lead with the 3DS and we saw how successfully that worked. The Wii U is going to allow developers who work mainly with the Xbox 360 and the PS3 to create content for that device easily. It will have its own quirks due to the new controller, but I think things will work out alright.
Wii Price Drop?
It’s been four years since the launch of the Wii and Nintendo has dropped the price on the system once and included a lot of new things in the box. New motion controls for competitors are now on the market, or will be very soon. Does that mark the need for another Wii price drop? Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter seems to think now is the perfect time for Nintendo to drop the price on their flagship console.
“We continue to believe that Nintendo has quality products and a robust market opportunity, but after four years on the market, the Wii is starting to show its age, and after 6 years, the DS is also starting to see sales declines. Competition from lower priced consoles at the high end and from the iPod Touch at the low end is expected to increase, and while we see the 3DS as withstanding the competitive threat, we are not so optimistic about the Wii’s chances.”
The DS is seeing sales declines because everyone has that system already and there is a brand new system on the horizon so that’s not anything really out of the ordinary. We keep hearing talk around the industry that Nintendo needs to do something. Is now the time for another price drop and if so how much do you think the Wii should come down in price?
Source: Industry Gamers
3DS Will Sell 10 Million Units With No Problem
I think there’s something wrong with the balance of the planet. Michael Pachter is giving Nintendo credit for something AND I agree with what he has to say.
“The 3DS was SO much better than I ever imagined, it has to be the hit of the show. I think that they can sell out the first 10 million at any price below $300, and think that the experience is well worth a price that high.”
So with that being said, do you agree with what Mr. Pachter has to say? I actually do. I think that Nintendo wowed people so much with the 3DS that it will have no problem selling 10 million units VERY, VERY quickly. If it launches with Kid Icarus and/or Ocarina of Time, I think the chance of that goes up even faster.
We talked about the 3DS on the podcast this week and what we think will happen and how much we’d be willing to pay for the system. If you haven’t heard that I encourage you to go and check it out. Let us know what you think of the system. We’re hearing rumours all over the place of a $249 or even $299 price tag, but also figures as low as $199, which is what I think the sweet spot is. Let us know what you think and if you agree with Mr. Pacther.
Michael Pachter Talks E3
We all know my personal thoughts on Michael Pachter, but if he continues to talk we’ll continue to talk about him. This time he talks about some of the things he wants to see E3 and declares himself a 3DS skeptic, before any of the details are known about the system.
“…I personally am most excited about the 3DS, given that the innovations in the DS over the last several years have been only marginal. I think that Nintendo has a lot of naysayers to shut down (including me), with a lot of people thinking that the iPod Touch is going to eat the DS’s lunch. Everything else is pretty well-known, but there will always be a surprise or two at the show, and I’m hoping we see something like a single console developer going multi-platform. I’m also hopeful that we hear about Nintendo’s 2011 lineup.” – Wedbush analyst, Michael Pachter
The one very interesting thought I see in his statement is his desire to see a console developer going multi-platform. Do you ever think you’d see Nintendo, Microsoft or Sony do this? Out of those three I would think Microsoft would be the most open to an idea like that. They already allow developers, like Rare, to work on the DS because they don’t compete in that space. What developers out there who traditionally develop for a single platform would you like to see go to other systems? My first choice would be Insomniac. They have traditionally developed for Sony platforms, but I would love to see the Rachet & Clank games move to Nintendo as well.
Source: Industry Gamers
Tony’s Time: The One Where I Talk About Analysts
There comes a time when you have to decide whether you respect a person for their opinion or if you believe they’re just talking to hear themselves talk. That time has come with Michael Pachter. I used to really respect his opinions and would read the things he had to say because he seemed to have insider info that we just don’t get. That may still be the case, but I think more and more you’re hearing things from him just to hear him talk. Lately it also seems like he’s trying to hid the fact that he’s been wrong about Nintendo more and more.
His job is that of an analyst. He takes the information that he has and makes general predictions and analyzes, for lack of a better word, the information that he has. Basically he is supposed to translate sales data and give it to us in layman’s terms. Most of the time we don’t really need that type of talking down to. He’s also using clever remarks to hide the fact that he’s been wrong a number of times. Now granted, when you do this for a living sometimes you’re going to get it wrong.
For instance, recently he said that Netflix on the Wii would be less successful than the HD counterparts to the service, mainly because of the lack of HD and the need to have a disc in the drive to run it. Because of this he expected 300-400 thousand new customers for 2010 on the service. The facts point to something different. In the first 3-4 weeks that the service was available there were more than 900,000 people who participated in the service. Now, granted, that doesn’t say new users it just says people that participated in the service. There’s no real numbers as to how many of those people were already subscribers and how many are new, but that’s a lot larger than the four-hundred thousand that he initially said.
The biggest point of news that he’s been touting is that there will be an announcement or even release of an HD Wii in 2010. He says that Nintendo needs to update their console in order to stay competitive. Well, monthly sales data continues to prove him wrong. Consistently month after month Wii outsells the PS3 and the 360, many times combined. The numbers are lower than the same period last year, but they’re still higher than the competition. I don’t see how that shows that the Wii needs to do something else to be competitive. Now because Nintendo is not showing off any new hardware, outside of the 3DS he has changed his tune to something different. Rather than saying that Nintendo needs to do something he hides behind jokes. “There is a Wii HD in 2010, it’s just called PS3 with Move.” That just smacks of someone who’s trying to cover up that he’s been blowing smoke up people’s butts.
I used to listen to him all the time, he had a lot of very interesting things to say. It was intelligent talk of competition, mostly between Sony and Microsoft. Nintendo has proven this generation that they know what they’re doing. They’re putting out more and more million selling pieces of software. The systems, both console and handheld, continue to dominate the charts, and people are interested in Nintendo after a couple generations of things being soft for them. So many people, after almost four years, still can’t seem to come to grips with the fact that Nintendo is doing well. They counted them out in the beginning and still don’t want to look the facts in the eye.
I respect the man. I think it’s great to get paid to do what he does. More and more often, though, I think he’s wrong and he doesn’t want to give all three companies the respect they deserve. All three platform holders are doing something to help gaming. I have my opinions on which ones I think are doing more and which ones are latching onto proven technology and you can probably guess how I feel. From now on I’ll take everything Michael Pachter says with a grain of salt.
Name The Turtle!!!
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Wii U, 3DS)
Super Little Acorns 3D Turbo (3DS)
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity (3DS)
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed (PS3)
The Amazing Spider-Man: Ultimate Edition (Wii U)
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